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Belgian labour costs are expected to rise more slowly in 2026 than in neighboring countries. This emerges from an interim report by the Centrale Raad voor het Bedrijfsleven - Conseil Central de l’Économie (CRB-CCE). According to the estimate, labour costs in Belgium will increase 1 to 1.1% less than in Germany, the Netherlands, and France, compared to the reference year 1996.
If this trend is confirmed in the final report at the start of 2027, it could create room for wage increases above the index in the next interprofessional negotiations.
Two scenarios, same direction
Because unions and employers disagree on whether a labour cost handicap existed before 1996, the CRB-CCE presents two scenarios:
- Union scenario: relative decrease of 1.1%.
- Employer scenario: relative decrease of 1%.
In both cases, there is a relative improvement in Belgium’s cost position.
This trend follows a period in which automatic indexation caused Belgian wages to rise faster than in neighbouring countries. Between 2022 and 2025, the labor cost handicap therefore increased. Now, Germany and other countries are catching up after the inflation shock, statistically leading to a correction.
Mixed reactions
Unions see the figures as confirmation of their criticism of the 1996 wage norm law. ABVV chairman Bert Engelaar states that the “labour cost handicap” has been eliminated. ACV also emphasizes that, when accounting for tax and contribution reductions, Belgian wages have structurally grown more slowly than in neighbouring countries.
Employer organizations are more cautious. The Verbond van Belgische Ondernemingen - Fédération des Entreprises de Belgique points to a remaining absolute handicap of around 10% and pressure on profitability, especially in the industrial sector. There is concern that temporary cost reductions could be offset by renewed wage pressure.
Federal Minister of Employment David Clarinval stresses that the wage norm law proves its value by protecting competitiveness and preventing structural distortions.
What does this mean for the metals sector?
For Belmetal members, the possible wage margin is a key factor looking toward 2027. If the figures hold, the question will rise again to increase wages above the index, while Belgium’s structural labour cost remains high compared to neighbouring countries.
The final CRB-CCE calculation, due at the beginning of 2027, will determine the actual wage margin and the impact on competitiveness. Social negotiations at the end of 2027 are expected to be intense.