In its Steel Outlook 2026, the OECD once again highlights a structural challenge facing the global steel industry: production capacity is growing faster than demand. By 2028, global excess steelmaking capacity could reach 745 million tonnes, while steel demand is expected to grow only modestly.
China remains the key driver behind this trend. As domestic demand slows, an increasing share of Chinese steel production is being exported to international markets. In 2025, Chinese steel exports reached a record level of more than 130 million tonnes. According to the OECD, this continues to put pressure on global steel prices and intensifies competition for European producers.
What Does This Mean for the Belgian Steel Trade?
For Belgium, these developments are particularly significant. As an open economy and an important link in the European steel value chain, the Belgian market is highly exposed to international market dynamics.
The combination of global overcapacity, geopolitical uncertainty and trade measures is creating a highly volatile market environment. Prices can fluctuate rapidly, while material availability and delivery times remain influenced by global developments.
At the same time, European steel producers face rising costs related to energy, sustainability requirements and investments in low-carbon production technologies. This increases the importance of European protection mechanisms such as anti-dumping measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
More Than Just Price
For industrial customers, supplier selection is becoming less about price alone. Reliability, quality, security of supply and transparency regarding the origin of materials are increasingly important purchasing criteria.
This creates opportunities for steel distributors that can offer not only products, but also market expertise and strategic guidance.
Looking Ahead
The OECD Steel Outlook 2026 confirms that the global steel market will continue to face structural overcapacity in the years ahead. For Belgian companies, staying flexible, closely monitoring market developments and working with reliable supply chain partners will be essential.